Electoral Vote Analysis
John McCain and Barack Obama are locked in a close race for the Electoral College Vote. Based on a 50-Day Average of Polls in each state, Obama currently leads McCain 237-236, with 65 votes in the "tossup" category.
I will update these totals here at Blogs for John McCain each Saturday for now, and more often as we get into the fall campaign. I started working on this analysis a few weeks ago thinking it would be very quick to put together. As I got into it, the project grew considerably! I decided to create a site at blogspot.com to house all the election analysis. You can see it all over at Electoral Projection. But my purpose is for those supporting John McCain to be able to follow how the Electoral College vote is shaping up as we move toward election day in November.
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Could John McCain actually win the election in a relative electoral blowout? It would seem all the cards are stacked against that happening for the GOP this year, but some analysts are privately saying it is a real possibility:
At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish.
But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes.
By post-war election standards, that margin is unusually small. Yet it’s considerably larger than either Bush’s 2004 victory or his five-electoral-vote win in 2000.
“A win by 40 or 50 electoral votes would be an astonishing upset, just a watershed event with all the issues that were stacked against him from the very beginning,” said David Woodard, a Republican pollster and Clemson University political science professor. “But it could happen. I know this seems like wishful thinking by Republicans. I’m thinking that Republicans could win by 40 electoral votes. But I dare not say it,” he added. “Certainly what is possible could come to pass.” read more »
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Here is a great analysis by Richard Baehr of the electoral vote path to victory for Sen. John McCain. He begins his article be assessing why this should be a Democratic year, and then moves to what McCain's strengths are and how he can win:
McCain's strengthDespite all this, John McCain is in very good shape for the general election run. The Republicans have landed on the one candidate in their party ideally suited for the race this year, with broad appeal among Democrats and independents, a veteran and war hero during a time of war, a candidate with a reputation for being a straight talker (and not talking down to voters, or outright lying to them), and with real strength in larger swing states. McCain is also benefiting from the fact that the Democrats continue to snipe at each other rather than at him, and each candidate has exposed weaknesses in the other, which become ammunition for McCain in the fall campaign.
McCain opens up the map to a broader Electoral College victory than George Bush achieved in 2000 and 2004, particularly against Barack Obama. read more »
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