National Polls
My gut tells me they are, but I don't know if they are off this bad.
Hat Tip. Ace of Spades
If on Tuesday night you hear them call the state of NJ for McCain, the proceeding loud thump you hear will be me passing out and hitting the floor.
My home state is full of Dems and our newspapers all tilt far to the left. But I was surprised this morning (not by the extreme liberal bias) but by the main editorial in the Newark Star Ledger. It implored that folks not stay home because of larger anticipated poll crowds. NJ has over 600,000 new voters this time around, which will make things a bit crazy along with some long lines.
Makes you wonder if somethings got them worried?
The Investor's Business Daily (IBD/TIPP) Tracking Poll has the Presidential race tightening to just a two-point lead for Barack Obama over John McCain with two days remaining. The IBD poll was the most accurate in the 2004 Presidential election. Here are the results:
John McCain moved back within 5-points of Barack Obama in the latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking Poll, 49%-44%. Obama led by seven-points yesterday. McCain actually outpolled Obama 48%-47% in Friday's polling, enough to make Zogby question whether McCain is "making a move:"
Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain dipped slightly to 5 points with three days left in the race for the White House, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Saturday.
Obama leads McCain by 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, down from a 7-point advantage on Friday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
McCain, who made solid gains in Friday's single day of polling, sliced Obama's lead among independents from 15 points to 6 points and among women from 9 points to 4 points.
"There is no doubt that McCain made some gains," said pollster John Zogby. "It is enough to raise the question, is McCain making a move?"
Obama's support dropped below the 50 percent mark after two consecutive days at that level. McCain's support has never moved above the 45 percent mark in the more than three weeks the tracking poll has been taken.
Obama has led McCain in every national opinion poll since late September, and McCain also trails in many of the key battleground states including Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.
But McCain and his campaign aides say he is clawing back, and McCain enlisted the help of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the battleground state of Ohio on Friday.
"I know a winning campaign when I see one," McCain said. "We're a couple of points back. Arnold said it best. The Mac is back."
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Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has now dropped under 3-points in the latest Investor's Business Daily (IBD/TIPP) Tracking Poll. Obama's lead stands at 47%-44.2%, or 2.8%. The lead had been 3.2% on Sunday, and 3.9% on Saturday.
After seesawing between 3.2 and 3.9 points over the weekend, Obama's lead
slipped to 2.8 Monday. Battleground also has Obama up 3, and other polls have
tightened, including Rasmussen, Zogby and Gallup to 5. Some polls show swings in
independents, but IBD/TIPP has them in a stable, 5-point range.
The Battleground Tracking Poll also has the race at 3-points today, 49%-46% in favor of Obama. Rasmussen, Gallup, and Zogby all put the race at a 5-point lead for Obama. That is a considerable improvement for McCain over 1-2 weeks ago, who trailed in most tracking polls by 7-11 points. Now the race appears to be a 3-5 point lead for Obama. If McCain can get that down to 1-3 points by the end of the week, we could be in for a really interesting final weekend to the campaign!
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Barack Obama has matched his largest lead of the campaign in the latest Rasmussen Tracking Poll. Obama now leads John McCain by a 52%-44% margin. But as Rasmussen points out, opinion on the two candidates appears to be hardening, with only 9% of voters now saying they could still change their mind:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This eight point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead of the year in a race that has been remarkably stable down the stretch. A week ago today, Obama was up by five. Two weeks ago, he was up by seven (see trends).
Today’s results mark the 30th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.
However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. Nine percent (9%) lean one way or the other but could change their mind. The remaining three percent (3%) are either committed to a third party candidate or remain undecided.
Thirty days ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. At that time, 39% said the same about McCain.
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The Investor's Business Daily Tracking Poll (IBD/TIPP) out today has John McCain within one point of Barack Obama:
The latest Battleground Poll has John McCain within four-points of Barack Obama, 49%-45%. McCain had pulled within one-point of Obama in the poll on Tuesday, 48%-47%. Since then, Obama has widened the lead back to 4-points.
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Some better news for John McCain on the national polling front:
44% Barack Obama
43% John McCain
Gallup Traditional Likely Voter
50% Barack Obama
45% John McCain
46% Barack Obama
42% John McCain
47% Barack Obama
42% John McCain
49% Barack Obama
47% John McCain
To summarize, here are five polls that have the race between 1 and 5-points. Certainly there are some polls that give Obama a much larger lead, such as the Fox News poll out today (49%-40%). Rasmussen has it a six-point Obama lead. But by no means is it over, and McCain needs to keep fighting hard.
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The Rasmussen Tracking Poll now has Barack Obama ahead by six-points, 51%-45%. Scott Rasmussen says the incredible stability of the race for a full month now indicates it will be "difficult" for John McCain to change the dynamic of the race:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. Obama has now enjoyed a modest lead every day for nearly a month.
It is difficult to overstate the stability of this campaign ever since the events on Wall Street brought a new wave of economic anxiety to the fore. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the Wall Street debacle, McCain held a very slight lead in the polls. Immediately afterwards, the race became more of a referendum on the Bush Administration and Obama moved ahead. The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.
For the past eleven days, Obama has been at the 50% or 51% level of support every day in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. During those same eleven days, McCain has been at 45% or 46% every day and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and six percentage points.
If you go back a couple of weeks further, the results are pretty much the same. It’s now been 27 days since Obama’s support moved below 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.
What Rasmussen is saying is undeniably true - John McCain is in a difficult position. But "difficult" is not impossible. John McCain must keep pressing home the issue of taxes and readiness to be President over these last 13 days. Hopefully, voters are going to take one more long last look at Barack Obama and will decide in the final couple of days he is too risky.
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Both the latest Rasmussen and Battleground Tracking Polls give Barack Obama a four-point lead over John McCain today.
Rasmussen has it 50%-46% for Obama - a two-point gain for McCain over yesterday, and Battleground gives Obama a 49%-45% lead.
Rasmussen will come out with a raft of key state polls later today that should indicate whether there is any improvement for Sen. McCain on the state level.
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