Polls
John McCain has moved up to tie Barack Obama in the latest Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll. Yesterday, Obama held a three-point lead. McCain has actually gained ground on Obama since his Vice-Presidential pick was announced last Saturday:
The Democratic National Convention has begun and the poll numbers are bouncing, but not in the direction that most people anticipated.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%. Yesterday, with leaners, Obama had a three-point advantage over McCain.
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A new Winthrop University poll conducted across the South indicates that Sen. John McCain is leading Barack Obama by a huge margin -- 51%-35%:
Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain enjoys a 16-point lead — 51 percent to 35 percent — among Southern voters over rival Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, a new poll by Winthrop University and ETV shows.
And, the further into the South you go, the larger McCain's lead grows, the poll of likely voters in 11 Southern states shows.
Likely voters in the Deep South — those in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina — preferred McCain by a 25-point margin, 56 percent to 31 percent.
Southern voters said what they want most in a president is honesty, experience and shared values. Southern voters rated McCain ahead of Obama in each of those categories.
McCain's strongest support comes from white working-class Southerners — who favor him by a 34-point margin — and white evangelicals — who favor the Arizonan by 54 percentage points.
The poll, which was conducted Aug. 1-17, has a margin of error of (plus or minus) 2.97 percentage points.
While political pundits have made much of Obama and Democrats trying to win over a Southern state or two from the Republicans in November, the Winthrop/ETV poll shows that will prove difficult.
"It's about keeping John McCain from sweeping the South. That's the key," said Scott Huffmon, associate professor of political science at Winthrop and director of the Winthrop/ETV Poll.
Rather than attempting to contest the presidential race across the South, a wiser strategy for Obama would be to concentrate on the closely contested Southern states, Huffmon said. "You cannot fight a regional battle anymore."
Individual state-by-state polls have shown Obama within striking distance of McCain in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Georgia.
Those states account for 70 votes that are up for grabs. The 11 Southern states in this poll will award 161 electoral votes, and 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
I look at Obama, not by choice, but if he appears on my television screen, and I see who? I know not. Who is this person? It's not like I walk into a convenience store to buy a newspaper from a stranger. I don't need to know the clerk, where he came from, what are his qualifications to give me change from my twenty dollar bill.
Obama is a stranger with a strange background where the words and sentences Muslim, Farrakhan, God damn America, America's chickens are coming home to roost,etc. abound in his life.
He enters the presidential race with a flashy smile and an expensive suit and asks for votes?
Who are you? The Bible has a scripture that says..."Know them who labor among you." and who is Obama?
He is from Kenya? Or is it his father? His mother was an atheist? Oh" that is just a rumor? He is a Muslim. Oh? he isn't? Who even knows who this person is?
One question after another is not an good endorsment for even a homeless person standing outside WalMart. At least the beggar has a sign saying "Why lie? I need beer."
Obama is linked to terrorists, the nation of Islam, to shady dealings in politics and in private life. Who is this person?
I saw a picture of him not placing his hand over his heart when the National Anthem was played. But a few say it is not important?
If I an American was at a football game or whatever, and everyone stood as the National Anthem was played and I don't place my hand over my heart can only be because I disrespect America or my right arm is broken and I can't.
Obama is not for America, he is for Obama. He proves this when he is out flashing smiles and saying things like "Not like the other faces on the dollar bills." He isn't black enough" or "He has a funny name" he promises change and winks at strangers.
What in tarnation has that to do with the country's situtation? With the world? Most importantly the war? He promises things not even God promised to do for us unless we do a national repentance. Still who knows if God will do it. And obama can't bring that about, but he promises that he will wave a magic wand and make all the bad stuff go away simply because he is Obama.
It is not good to have this person wanting to be president, much less elected.
We know who McCain is, what we see is what we get, a man made of good stuff. Honest, dependable, brave, bright, strong and true.
We need to elect McCain, that is the the right thing to do..
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From Gallup.com
The Democrats must be shocked that McCain is tied with Obama this close the Democratic Convention. With Hillary being able to secure a tally of votes at the convention, Obama may wish he had not gone on vacation.
Several new polls have great news for Sen. John McCain! McCain now leads Barack Obama in Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and Florida and North Carolina - although by small margins - according to new polls released today and yesterday. Here are the numbers:
49% John McCain
48% Barack Obama
Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by seven points at 49%-42%.
48% John McCain
47% Barack Obama
48% John McCain
45% Barack Obama
Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by two points at 42%-40%.
In Florida - Insider Advantage / Poll Position
48% John McCain
44% Barack Obama
In North Carolina - Survey USA
49% John McCain
45% Barack Obama
_________________________
Perhaps just as heartening for McCain, he is moving much closer to Obama in a number of states assumed to be fairly safe for Democrats. Rather than Obama pulling away from McCain leading up to the Conventions, McCain is now within striking distance in these states:
49% Barack Obama
45% John McCain
Just three weeks ago, Obama led McCain by 12 points in Minnesota, 49%-37%!
51% Barack Obama
44% John McCain
Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by 16 points at 55%-39%.
In Wisconsin - Strategic Vision
47% Barack Obama
42% John McCain
In Pennsylvania - Franklin & Marshall
46% Barack Obama
41% John McCain
___________________________
These numbers bode well for McCain who has weathered the nearly three month storm since Obama clinched the nomination against Hillary the first week of June. Most pundits believed he would open up a huge lead over McCain during the three months leading up to the conventions. So far, he has not. McCain has had far less media coverage, and despite the fawning press in favor of Obama and his huge overseas trip, McCain has managed to stay close. In fact, as these numbers indicate, he is moving up on Obama as the Democratic Convention draws near.
Obama will assuredly get a bounce out of his convention - nominees almost always get a bounce, averaging in the 12 point region.
UPDATE: The Gallup Poll Average Convention Bounce is apparently 6.1 points since 1964:
According to Gallup's analysis of its own polls since 1964, the average post-convention bounce is 6.1 percent. To calculate that figure, Gallup used the last poll before the convention and the first poll afterward. The largest bounce came in 1992, when Bill Clinton went up 16 points in the polls following the convention. The smallest came in 1972 when Sen. George McGovern's poll numbers did not rise at all after the Democratic convention officially nominated him.
But if McCain can be within single digits of Obama nationally after the Democratic Convention and before the GOP Convention, he will be in amazing position headed into the two month sprint to November 4. Keep your eye on the trend.
John McCain and Barack Obama remain tied at 44%-44% for the second straight day in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:
Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are once again tied in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential trial heat.The results, based on a three-day rolling average of interviews conducted July 30-Aug. 1, show Obama and McCain each receiving 44% of the vote among registered voters. The candidates were also tied in Friday's update. Obama received a brief increase in support near the conclusion of his overseas trip last week, gaining a nine percentage point advantage in July 24-26 polling. But that bounce disappeared almost quickly as it emerged.
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It appears the Left is getting nervous that John McCain is hanging around in this Presidential race. Look at part of an article posted at The New Republic (TNR) which bemoans the fact Barack Obama has been unable to pull away from McCain:
Last week, for the first time in our history, we had an African American president. Barack Obama posed for pictures with Angela Merkel and toured the skies of Iraq with David Petraeus. Meanwhile, George W. Bush was nowhere to be seen, as if he had already handed over the keys to the White House.
Savor the moment. It might not last.
Despite the ecstatic throngs in Berlin and the impeccable Sderot photo-op, Obama's lead hasn't grown in the polls. In fact, as of this writing, it has actually diminished in some polls of Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota--and evaporated in Colorado. National polls show McCain hanging within a stunningly small margin. (According to pollster.com's average of all polling, he leads by just 2.5 percent.) What makes this margin so stunning is that nothing has gone right for McCain this past month. Obama has owned the news cycle--a fact that has turned McCain and his advisers into contemptuous whiners, complaining about the media's infatuation with Obama and even belittling their own travelling press corps as the "junior varsity" squad. . . .
Yet, somehow, despite all this, McCain remains in the game. This is not easy to explain--and it should cause a great deal of introspection at Obama headquarters. For all the many ways that the stars have aligned for Obama, he has yet to take full advantage of what historically has been a great opportunity. Of course, we speak of the economy. These are the type of painful times when voters invariably turn to Democrats. So why aren't they turning to Obama in greater numbers? . . .
The model should be Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign, which didn't just relentlessly harp on hard times--it had a clear theory for what caused them. In part, this is a consequence of the prolonged primary season: Obama should have been compiling his general election case many months ago, while he had to contend with Hillary Clinton. And, now, time is growing short. Just because every data point would suggest an Obama victory, doesn't mean that he won't blow it.
What the Liberal Left misses about John McCain is that he is a fighter and not a quitter. He has faced much tougher tests in his life than this Presidential campaign, and he came through with honor and victory. Americans sense that in McCain -- while they may not agree with him on all issues -- they have a man of strength, integrity and character. With Obama, they don't get that same sense. That is why John McCain may end up doing far more than just "hanging around."
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The race for the White House remains in a virtual deadlock today between Sen. John McCain and Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Tracking poll has Obama up 47%-46%, making it effectively a tie. McCain has not led for weeks, but he is hanging very close despite the enormous press coverage Obama has received since securing the nomination in early June, and during his overseas adventure:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that the race for the White House has become breathtakingly close. Barack Obama attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. While the race has been very close for much of the past few weeks, McCain has never held the lead for even a single day in the two weeks since Obama clinched the nomination.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain earns positive reviews from 86% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 82% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 60% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 50%.
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Good news out today on the polling front -- Quinnipiac is out with polls from Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and all four show gains for Sen. John McCain!
McCain has moved slightly ahead in Colorado, and is now only two points back in Minnesota, and four points back in Michigan. He still trails by 11 points in Wisconsin, but has made gains there too:
Arizona Sen. John McCain has inched ahead of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in Colorado; come within inches in Minnesota and narrowed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.
Voters in each state say energy policy is more important than the war in Iraq. And by margins of 22 to 31 percentage points, voters in each state support offshore oil drilling, and by seven to 12-point margins, drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.
Sen. McCain has picked up support in almost every group in every state, especially among independent voters and men voters. The Republican now leads Obama among independent voters in Michigan and Minnesota. Overall results show:
* Colorado: McCain is up by a nose 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 49 - 44 percent Obama lead June 26;
* Michigan: Obama tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent lead last time;
* Minnesota: Obama edges ahead 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 54 - 37 percent Obama lead;
* Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 50 - 39 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent."Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit. It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain. His movement in these key states, not large except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening we are seeing in the national polls," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The good news for McCain is that he has improved his standing in Colorado and Michigan, two states that are critical to each man's strategy. Obama wants to break through in the Rocky Mountain and Southwestern states that have been going Republican for decades. McCain sees recently Democratic Michigan as his top takeaway target," Brown added.
"One reason for McCain's progress may be the energy issue. The results show increased support for additional drilling - which McCain supports and Obama opposes. Roughly one in ten voters say they have changed their minds and now favor drilling because of the jump in energy prices. They support Obama, but with voters saying that the energy issue is now more important to their presidential vote than is the war in Iraq, this group represents an opportunity for the Republican.
To put this in perspective, Minnesota has only voted Republican once since 1956 (in 1972 when Nixon won 49 states). Michigan has not voted Republican since 1988, and Wisconsin not since 1984. For McCain to be within 2 points in Minnesota, and 4 points in Michigan right now is astounding, especially considering the non-stop positive press Obama has received for over 1 1/2 months now, since clinching the nomination against Hillary.
This adds an interesting element to the VP decision for McCain. Pawlenty might be enough to put McCain over the top in Minnesota, and Romney might be enough to do the same in Michigan. I'm sure the McCain Campaign is trying to analyze which is the better bet.
Rasmussen Kansas:
McCain 55
Obama 34
Rasmussen Arkansas
McCain 57
Obama 33
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