State Polls
Two new polls out today show Sen. John McCain leading in two states that went for the Democrats in 2004. McCain leads in New Hampshire by a 49%-47% margin:
John McCain has gained ground for the third straight month and now holds a slight two-point advantage over Barack Obama in the swing state of New Hampshire.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Granite State finds McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 47%. A month ago, it was Obama by a point. . . . .
McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of New Hampshire voters, Obama by 54%. Those figures reflect a three-point improvement for McCain and a single-point decline for Obama.
McCain leads Obama by three in Michigan according to a new survey:
And another poll in Michigan -- by the Marketing Resource Group of Lansing for the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics -- showed McCain leading Obama in the state, 46%-43%.
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American Research Group (ARG) has released a set of 25 state polls today. Go here to take a look at the entire list. It's mostly good news for Sen. John McCain.
GOOD NEWS
Colorado
46% McCain
44% Obama
Illinois (Obama's home state)
51% Obama
45% McCain
Missouri (Voted for every Presidential winner since 1900 except for 1956)
50% McCain
45% Obama
Nevada
49% McCain
46% Obama
North Carolina
52% McCain
41% Obama
Ohio
50% McCain
44% Obama
NOT GOOD NEWS
Montana
49% McCain
47% Obama
New Mexico
51% Obama
44% McCain
West Virginia
49% McCain
45% Obama
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In another shocking example of Sen. John McCain running strong in "blue states," a new poll in Minnesota shows McCain has tied Barack Obama there 45%-45%! The mere fact McCain has a chance in Minnesota speaks volumes about how this race has turned around in the lat month. McCain was down 13-points in Minnesota in May:
With 51 days before Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain are tied with 45 percent support, raising the stakes in the campaign.
Minnesota has become a battleground in a presidential campaign that has dramatically tightened nationwide.
A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state.
The new poll likely will stoke both sides' efforts during the final 51 days until the election, triggering a barrage of advertising, grass-roots politicking and, potentially, stepped-up visits by the candidates.
The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.
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A trend is beginning to develop: John McCain is now polling strong in some very blue states -- states that should be a slam dunk for Barack Obama. The latest: New Jersey. A new Marist poll there has Barack Obama leading John McCain by only three-points, 48%-45%.
Other examples:
49% Obama
47% McCain
45% McCain
44% Obama
48% Obama
45% McCain
At the very least, this will mean Obama is going to have to spend time and money to defend these states and others that may develop. He can't afford to lose even one of them to John McCain and have a real chance to win.
A shocking new Rasmussen poll out of Washington shows Sen. John McCain pulling within two-points of Barack Obama. Obama leads 49%-47%, a stunning reversal from one month ago when Obama led 52%-40%. Washington has been considered a "sure thing" state for Obama, but with the addition of Gov. Sarah Palin, it appears to now be competitive:
Washington is the latest state to show a strong western surge for John McCain since he added Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Barack Obama still ahead, but barely. It’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%. A month ago, Obama was up by twelve percentage points. Recent polls have shown McCain gains in Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota.
Among Democrats, Obama now attracts 83% of the vote, down six points from last month. However, the big change comes among unaffiliated voters who now favor McCain by a 48% to 43% margin. In August, before the two parties held their conventions, Obama led by twelve among voters not affiliated with either major political party
Two new Insider Advantage/Poll Position polls shows John McCain opening up leads over Barack Obama in both Florida and Georgia:
50% John McCain
42% Barack Obama
The last Insider Advantage/Poll Position poll in Florida (August) had McCain up by 4 points, 48%-44%.
56% John McCain
38% Barack Obama
The last Insider Advantage/Poll Position poll (July) in Georgia had McCain up by only 1-point, 46%-44%.
A new InsiderAdvantage / Poll Position survey of likely registered voters in Georgia indicates a steep decline for the Barack Obama campaign and likely explains why the candidate is moving resources out of Georgia and into other states.
The poll of 506 registered likely voters, weighted for age, race, and gender, was conducted Wednesday evening. It has a margin of error of +/- 4%
Q. If the election were held today, would you vote for:
John McCain: 56%
Barack Obama: 38%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 4%
InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “This is a huge slide from what had been, in our prior surveys, a relatively close race. The reason is simple—Obama lost serious ground in virtually every demographic.
“At first glance it would seem that Obama is headed for no better than the low 40 percentile level achieved by John Kerry in 2004. But let me warn observers that in both our national tracking and surveys in other states, the biggest change has been a near parity between the two candidates among the youngest of voters.
“Should that group return to Obama and the African-American vote end up where we expect it to be, the race could be closer in November. But as of now Georgia is no longer a “leans McCain” state. As of this survey, Georgia is in the McCain column.”
The poll, to remain consistent with seven total state polls conducted around the nation by the firm Wednesday evening, does not list Bob Barr as a candidate. “Having Bob Barr’s name on the ballot would likely take a net point or two from McCain, but at least at this stage, Barr’s presence is not an essential piece of the electoral pie in Georgia,” Towery said. “If the race tightens, that could change.”
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John McCain and Sarah Palin now lead Barack Obama - Joe Biden by seven points in the critical battleground state of Ohio. A new Rasmussen/Fox News Poll shows McCain leading 51%-44%:
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio, finds John McCain out in front of Barack Obama 51% to 44%.
The latest numbers, which are the first to be released since the conclusion of both parties’ conventions, mark an improvement for the Republican nominee. In August, McCain had a slightly more modest advantage over the Democrat. In fact, the GOP hopeful has held a modest lead since July in the swing state that finally decided the 2004 election.
McCain is viewed favorably by 63% of Ohio voters and unfavorably by 35%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable.
Take note of the disparity between the two candidates in the favorable ratings. McCain viewed favorable by a +28% margin; Obama viewed favorable by a 2% margin. After this many months on the campaign trail, it will be hard for Obama to lift his favorable rating significantly over the next 56 days.
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John McCain has pulled within three points of Barack Obama in Pennsylvania in a new Rasmussen Poll there. With "leaners" included, Obama leads McCain 46%-43%, down from a six-point Obama lead last month. When "leaners" are not included, the margin is five - 45%-40%:
Barack Obama leads John McCain by five percentage points in Pennsylvania for the second month in a row. Both candidates have lost some support from a month ago, with the Democrat now favored by 45% while his Republican opponent earns the vote from 40%.
When “leaners” are included, Obama’s lead is down to just three points, 48% to 45%. A month ago, Obama led by six when leaners were included.
The data in Pennsylvania reflects patterns seen elsewhere in recent polling. McCain has more support from Republicans than Obama does from Democrats, and McCain also wins more crossover votes from the other party. The two candidates are even among unaffiliated voters.
Obama wins among younger voters and those who don’t attend church while McCain has a solid lead among senior citizens and regular churchgoers.
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A new Rasmussen poll in New Hampshire has John McCain withing one-point of Barack Obama in the Granite State. Obama leads 47%-46%, down from a four-point Obama lead three weeks ago, and an 11-point lead two months ago. McCain is surging nationally, and in many of the key states across the nation.
The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama's once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%.
When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%.
The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July. The latest numbers mark the closest the race has been so far this year.
The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.
While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.
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John McCain has moved out to a six-point lead over Barack Obama in Indiana, according to a new Survey USA poll. McCain now leads Obama 50%-44% in the Hoosier State, reversing a one-point Obama lead in Indiana in a Survey USA poll there two months ago.
In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3.
Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend, Obama leads by 14. Among those who rarely attend, Obama leads by 23. The field period for this survey overlapped with the candidates' participation in Pastor Rick Warren's Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency, held in California 08/16/08. Among men, McCain leads by 12 points; among women, McCain and Obama tie. Eight weeks ago, Obama had led by 7 among women.
Among voters younger than Barack Obama, the two candidates tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 21 points; among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, McCain leads by 9. 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents favor Obama by 12 points.
Among those who have graduated from a 4-year college, McCain leads by 15 points; among those who have not, McCain and Obama tie. Among those with household incomes of less than $50,000, Obama leads by 11; among those with incomes above $50,000, McCain leads by 18.
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