Strategic Vision Polls
A new Strategic Vision Poll has John McCain within 7-points of Barack Obama in Pennsylvania. The McCain Campaign seems to have decided they must win Pennsylvania to win the election. These results show it is a long-shot, but still within reach:
Below are the poll results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Pennsylvania, aged 18+, and conducted October 20-22, 2008. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
1. If the election for President were held today would you support the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joseph Biden or the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin?
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 43%
Other 2%
Undecided 5%
»
- brianinmo's blog
- Login or register to post comments
Several new polls have great news for Sen. John McCain! McCain now leads Barack Obama in Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and Florida and North Carolina - although by small margins - according to new polls released today and yesterday. Here are the numbers:
49% John McCain
48% Barack Obama
Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by seven points at 49%-42%.
48% John McCain
47% Barack Obama
48% John McCain
45% Barack Obama
Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by two points at 42%-40%.
In Florida - Insider Advantage / Poll Position
48% John McCain
44% Barack Obama
In North Carolina - Survey USA
49% John McCain
45% Barack Obama
_________________________
Perhaps just as heartening for McCain, he is moving much closer to Obama in a number of states assumed to be fairly safe for Democrats. Rather than Obama pulling away from McCain leading up to the Conventions, McCain is now within striking distance in these states:
49% Barack Obama
45% John McCain
Just three weeks ago, Obama led McCain by 12 points in Minnesota, 49%-37%!
51% Barack Obama
44% John McCain
Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by 16 points at 55%-39%.
In Wisconsin - Strategic Vision
47% Barack Obama
42% John McCain
In Pennsylvania - Franklin & Marshall
46% Barack Obama
41% John McCain
___________________________
These numbers bode well for McCain who has weathered the nearly three month storm since Obama clinched the nomination against Hillary the first week of June. Most pundits believed he would open up a huge lead over McCain during the three months leading up to the conventions. So far, he has not. McCain has had far less media coverage, and despite the fawning press in favor of Obama and his huge overseas trip, McCain has managed to stay close. In fact, as these numbers indicate, he is moving up on Obama as the Democratic Convention draws near.
Obama will assuredly get a bounce out of his convention - nominees almost always get a bounce, averaging in the 12 point region.
UPDATE: The Gallup Poll Average Convention Bounce is apparently 6.1 points since 1964:
According to Gallup's analysis of its own polls since 1964, the average post-convention bounce is 6.1 percent. To calculate that figure, Gallup used the last poll before the convention and the first poll afterward. The largest bounce came in 1992, when Bill Clinton went up 16 points in the polls following the convention. The smallest came in 1972 when Sen. George McGovern's poll numbers did not rise at all after the Democratic convention officially nominated him.
But if McCain can be within single digits of Obama nationally after the Democratic Convention and before the GOP Convention, he will be in amazing position headed into the two month sprint to November 4. Keep your eye on the trend.
The last two weeks had brought talk that Barack Obama just might win in Florida and Georgia against John McCain, based on a few recent polls, particularly polls done by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic polling outfit.
But polls done by both Rasmussen and Strategic Vision in Florida show McCain with a seven and eight point lead respectively:
FLORIDA - Rasmussen
48% John McCain
41% Barack Obama
FLORIDA - Strategic Vision
49% John McCain
41% Barack Obama
In Georgia, an Insider Advantage poll two weeks ago had McCain only up by one point with Bob Barr in the equation, but now two polls which include Bob Barr show McCain with strong leads in Georgia:
GEORGIA - Rasmussen
53% John McCain
43% Barack Obama
1 % Bob Barr
GEORGIA - Strategic Vision
51% John McCain
43% Barack Obama
3 % Bob Barr
This would seem to indicate that the dire scenarios some in the media were painting of a John McCain collapse across the nation was wishful thinking on their part. McCain is still very strong in the areas where the GOP ususally wins, and he has put places like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in play. We'll see if the polls keep coming back McCain's way as the euphoria over Obama's clinching of the Democratic Nomination subsides.
Going forward, John McCain has only to finish up the job of crossing the finish line for the GOP Nomination by gaining the 1,191 delegates needed. By all accounts, he now has over 800. Here are new polls for Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Carolina:
Wisconsin (Strategic Vision)
45% John McCain
27% Mike Huckabee
7% Ron Paul
Ohio (Survey USA)
50% John McCain
36% Mike Huckabee
6% Ron Paul
North Carolina (Survey USA)
45% John McCain
40% Mike Huckabee
5% Ron Paul
»
- brianinmo's blog
- Login or register to post comments
