Zogby Polls
John McCain has moved out to a two-point lead over Barack Obama according to a new Zogby Poll, with a significant improvement coming for Sen. McCain following his announcement yesterday that he was suspending his campaign and returning to Washington, D.C. to help iron out a rescue plan for America's financial system.
Republican John McCain's poll numbers improved slightly as he suspended his campaign Wednesday to head back to Washington to focus on the looming national financial crisis, moving from more than three points behind Barack Obama last weekend to two points ahead in a Zogby Interactive survey just out of the field this morning.
What is still unknown is what will happen to the first presidential debate in Mississippi, which had been set for Friday evening but which has been put on hold by the McCain campaign. The sponsor of the debate and the Obama campaign insist the debate will go on.
Both surveys of likely voters nationwide were conducted using Zogby's online polling technology, which has proven accurate in national and statewide races dating back to 2004.
McCain now leads Obama, 45.8% to 43.8%, the survey shows.
The Horserace
Sept. 23/25
Sept. 19/20
Obama
43.8%
46.8%
McCain
45.8%
43.4%
Not sure/Other
10.4%
8.8%
The big shift in the race appears to have come among independent voters, where McCain now leads by nine points, 43% to 34%. In the survey conducted over the weekend, Obama led by one point among independents.
Both candidates have a sturdy grip on their political bases, the survey shows. McCain and Obama each win 88% support from voters in their respective political parties.
Among men, McCain leads by a 53% to 35% margin, up 15 points from the weekend survey. Among women, Obama leads by a 52% to 39% margin, up 5 points from the weekend survey.
The survey, half conducted before McCain's announcement Wednesday that he would suspend his campaign to concentrate on the financial crisis and half conducted after the announcement, shows movement in McCain's favor after his announcement. Before the announcement - which included about half of the total polling sample - Obama led by one point. But McCain led by 5 points in polling completed after his statement about the suspension of his campaign. Overall, the interactive survey, conducted Sept. 23-25, 2008, included 4,752 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points.
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A new Zogby Interactive Poll has John McCain and Sarah Palin leading Barack Obama and Joe Biden by a 49.7%-45.9% margin!
Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.
The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.
The Ticket Horserace
9-5/6
8-29/30
McCain-Palin
49.7%
47.1%
Obama-Biden
45.9%
44.6%
Others/Not sure
4.4%
8.3%
The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.
Hat Tip: BFJM member Mike Clarke
A Zogby Interactive Flash Poll conducted from mid-day yesterday until mid-day today shows the McCain-Palin Ticket leads the Obama-Biden Ticket by a 47%-45% margin, and seems to have blunted the bounce Obama had hoped to get coming out of his convention:
Republican John McCain’s surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama’s historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows…
The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama’s Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain’s increases to 92%…
Overall, 52% said the selection of Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee helps the Republican ticket, compared to 29% who said it hurt. Another 10% said it made no difference, while 10% were unsure. Among independent voters, 52% said it helps, while 26% said it would hurt. Among women, 48% said it would help, while 29% said it would hurt the GOP ticket. Among Republicans, the choice was a big hit - as 87% said it would help, and just 3% said it would hurt.
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A Zogby Poll done in July showed that Joe Biden would actually be a net negative if chosen by Barack Obama to be his running mate. Check out the numbers:
Likelihood to vote for Barack Obama if he chooses ... as his Vice President Likely Voters Democrats Independents More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely Colin Powell 42% 10% 42% 12% 43% 9% Hillary Clinton 30% 25% 47% 15% 33% 26% Bill Richardson 15% 10% 9% 13% 12% 9% Joe Biden 11% 16% 6% 22% 11% 13% Kathleen Sebelius 7% 11% 10% 11% 7% 9% Tim Kaine 7% 11% 8% 10% 8% 8% Evan Bayh 6% 12% 9% 9% 7% 9%
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John McCain has taken a 5-point lead over Barack Obama in a new Reuters/Zogby poll just released today! McCain now leads Obama 46%-41% in the new poll, erasing a 7-point Obama lead in last month's Reuters/Zogby Poll:
In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.
The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.
The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia's invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views.
"There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now," pollster John Zogby said. "This is a significant ebb for Obama."
McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.
That margin reversed Obama's 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise and shows far greater interest in foreign and military policy.
McCain has been on the offensive against Obama during the last month over energy concerns, with polls showing strong majorities supporting his call for an expansion of offshore oil drilling as gasoline prices hover near $4 a gallon.
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From Zogby.com
Obama loses support among his strongest demographic groups
UTICA, New York – A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.
The margin between the candidates is statistically insignificant, but demonstrates a notable turn-around from the Reuters/Zogby poll of July 7-9 that showed Obama ahead, 46%-36% in a four-way match-up that included Libertarian candidate Bob Barr of Georgia and liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader. McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups. For example:
McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.
Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.
Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.
Obama’s support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.
Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins.
The survey results come as Obama, fresh off what had been characterized as a triumphant tour of the Middle East and Europe, including a speech to 200,000 Germans in Berlin. That trip quickly became fodder for an aggressive response ad by the McCain campaign that questioned whether Obama’s popularity around the world meant he was ready to lead the U.S.Pollster John Zogby: “The McCain camp seems to have turned lemons into lemonade. Huge crowds and mostly favorable press reviews of Obama’s overseas trip have been trumped by McCain’s attacks on Obama. Loss of support for Obama among young voters may also be due to his perceived reversals on issues they care about, such as the war and government eavesdropping.”
Electoral votes decide the Presidency, and this ATV/Zogby poll gives signs that McCain is making gains in winning key states. By region, McCain’s greatest gains came in the Central U.S. and in the West, home to several key battleground states. What was a narrow Obama lead in the Central U.S. is now a 45%-36% McCain edge. In the West, Obama’s 15% lead is gone, and McCain is now ahead, 43%-40%...
Click the link above for the complete results...
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Clinton Pulling Away in "The Battle of Pennsylvania"
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John McCain has opened up a six point lead over Barack Obama, and holds an eight point lead over Hillary Clinton in a new Reuters/Zogby Poll out today.
46% John McCain
40% Barack Obama
48% John McCain
40% Hillary Clinton
The poll showed Arizona Sen. McCain, who has clinched the Republican presidential nomination, is benefiting from the lengthy campaign battle between Obama and Clinton, who are now battling to win Pennsylvania on April 22.
McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama in the November presidential election, according to the poll.
That is a sharp turnaround from the Reuters/Zogby poll from last month, which showed in a head-to-head matchup that Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 40 percent.
"The last couple of weeks have taken a toll on Obama and in a general election match-up, on both Democrats," said pollster John Zogby.
Matched up against Clinton, McCain leads 48 percent to 40 percent, narrower than his 50 to 38 percent advantage over her in February.
"It's not surprising to me that McCain's on top because there is disarray and confusion on the Democratic side," Zogby said
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Confirmation of a Move in Mac's Direction!
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John McCain goes into today's primaries in Texas and Ohio with huge leads over Mike Huckabee, according to the latest Zogby Tracking Polls in the two states. McCain needs just over 100 delegates tonight to clinch the nomination. John McCain.com reports that he has 1,090 delegates to date, just 101 short of the needed 1,191 for the GOP Nomination. Here is the Zogby Poll information for the two big states:
The telephone surveys also show Republican front-runner John McCain, the senator from Arizona, holding his edges in Texas and Ohio. He continues to enjoy a sizable lead over closest challenger Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. He has made gains among Texas Republicans and appears headed for victory in both states.
|
Ohio - Republicans |
3-1/3 |
2-29/3-2 |
2-28/3-1 |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
McCain |
59% |
61% |
61% |
58% |
62% |
|
Huckabee |
29% |
28% |
27% |
23% |
19% |
|
Paul |
5% |
5% |
3% |
8% |
8% |
|
Someone else |
2% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
4% |
4% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
Texas - Republicans 3-1/3 2-29/3-2 2-28/3-1 2-27/29 2-26/28 McCain 57% 53% 54% 54% 53% Huckabee 29% 33% 36% 31% 27% Paul 6% 6% 4% 7% 11% Someone else 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% Not sure 4% 3% 4% 4% 5%
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