McCain Making Significant Gains in Key Battleground States - Quinnipiac
Good news out today on the polling front -- Quinnipiac is out with polls from Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and all four show gains for Sen. John McCain!
McCain has moved slightly ahead in Colorado, and is now only two points back in Minnesota, and four points back in Michigan. He still trails by 11 points in Wisconsin, but has made gains there too:
Arizona Sen. John McCain has inched ahead of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in Colorado; come within inches in Minnesota and narrowed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.
Voters in each state say energy policy is more important than the war in Iraq. And by margins of 22 to 31 percentage points, voters in each state support offshore oil drilling, and by seven to 12-point margins, drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.
Sen. McCain has picked up support in almost every group in every state, especially among independent voters and men voters. The Republican now leads Obama among independent voters in Michigan and Minnesota. Overall results show:
* Colorado: McCain is up by a nose 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 49 - 44 percent Obama lead June 26;
* Michigan: Obama tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent lead last time;
* Minnesota: Obama edges ahead 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 54 - 37 percent Obama lead;
* Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 50 - 39 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent."Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit. It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain. His movement in these key states, not large except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening we are seeing in the national polls," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The good news for McCain is that he has improved his standing in Colorado and Michigan, two states that are critical to each man's strategy. Obama wants to break through in the Rocky Mountain and Southwestern states that have been going Republican for decades. McCain sees recently Democratic Michigan as his top takeaway target," Brown added.
"One reason for McCain's progress may be the energy issue. The results show increased support for additional drilling - which McCain supports and Obama opposes. Roughly one in ten voters say they have changed their minds and now favor drilling because of the jump in energy prices. They support Obama, but with voters saying that the energy issue is now more important to their presidential vote than is the war in Iraq, this group represents an opportunity for the Republican.
To put this in perspective, Minnesota has only voted Republican once since 1956 (in 1972 when Nixon won 49 states). Michigan has not voted Republican since 1988, and Wisconsin not since 1984. For McCain to be within 2 points in Minnesota, and 4 points in Michigan right now is astounding, especially considering the non-stop positive press Obama has received for over 1 1/2 months now, since clinching the nomination against Hillary.
This adds an interesting element to the VP decision for McCain. Pawlenty might be enough to put McCain over the top in Minnesota, and Romney might be enough to do the same in Michigan. I'm sure the McCain Campaign is trying to analyze which is the better bet.
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MN and MI in play ? Yup !
That IS the big news here. That Tim Pawlenty might win MN for us. Ofr that Mitt might win MI for us. My own view is that Mitt loses far more,nationwidew, than he wins in MI, whereas Tim Pawlenty wins us MN and does no harm elsewhere. But.....
.....Joe Lieberman helps us almost everywhere, as does Mike Bloomberg. So why not one of them ?
If anything Pawlenty would
If anything Pawlenty would hurt. He is not that popular in Minnesota, and MN is not likely to go despite this poll.
Bloomberg and Lieberman would mean sure defeat for McCain -- he would lose conservatives. I wouldn't even vote for him in that scenario, as that would basically be admitting there is no difference between him and Obama.