Please note, this post originally appeared on my blog August 12th...
I like to stay ahead of the curve and we try to see events beyond the horizon of the mainstream news organizations. That is why I am asking this question two weeks even before the Republican convention. A major reason I am asking this is because of how awkwardly Obama is stumbling towards election day.

Typically, the Democratic candidate is well ahead in the polls at this time of the year. Why? Because a large swath of Americans don't get major focus on the candidates until the debates in October. At this juncture, a substantial percent have a 40,000 foot view of the candidates. At this stage of the race, their opinion is hovering above watching the candidates like a Goodyear blimp watching a game. At this level, the winds created by the media and press coverage has a major effect on their vantage point.

And, as far as I can remember, the winds of Media always flow in favor of the Democratic candidate, thus opinion polls usually wind up favoring the Democrats. This reason is why Obama looks to be in major trouble. If the media can't give him a big boost when voters are at the blimp level, they sure as heck won't be able to do so as they become more focused .

As voters move closer to election day, their focus moves steadily down from 40,000 feet level to the playing field. That is why Republicans almost always close the early gap and win the election. As voters move closer it becomes less about who the media favors and opinions are less able to be manipulated by the media. Democratic nominees built up by the media don't often withstand a serious review by a majority of voters to whom the outcome truly matters.

Thus, if in light of the fawning press Obama has 24-7 the media still can't get him a 12 to 15 point lead he is in major trouble as voters get focused. This is why I think, and I am probably early on this story, the question we need to ask is will McCain actually have coattails? I am starting to believe he will.

The more Americans realize that Barack is not ready for prime time and that he looks amateurish in contrast to McCain, the larger a lead John Mac is going to have in the polls going into election day. Amazingly, this may not even be a close election.

Remember, Barack couldn't close strong against Hillary. He covered up the last few rounds and tried to run out the clock because he knew he would win on points. He is not a strong finisher. He is limping into the convention while sinking in the polls. An acutely worse position than Kerry and Gore had going into their convention.

In fact, I can't remember a Dem nominee limping into convention since Mondale. Almost always, the combination of lack of focus by voters and a huge push by the media usually has the Dem nominee entering Convention from a position of strength. But not this time because Obama is such a weak general election candidate. (Please note: I understand he is inspiring the rich left wingers on America's Coasts, but let's be honest he ain't exactly firing up the blue collar Reagan Democrats who can spot a phony from across the field.)

So, if he is weak now, as form holds true he will weaken towards election day. A big win for McCain may end up having unexpected coattails for Republicans in Congressional races. That is how I see things from my vantage point. What say you? Blogs for McCain is fired up about McCain's lead in the polls

Excerpted from my blog at: http://nitwildcard.typepad.com/rclightning/