Raft of New State Polls Shows Movement in McCain's Direction - 8/14/08


Several new polls have great news for Sen. John McCain! McCain now leads Barack Obama in Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and Florida and North Carolina - although by small margins - according to new polls released today and yesterday. Here are the numbers:

In Colorado - Rasmussen

49% John McCain
48% Barack Obama

Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by seven points at 49%-42%.

In Virginia - Rasmussen

48% John McCain
47% Barack Obama

In Nevada - Rasmussen

48% John McCain
45% Barack Obama

Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by two points at 42%-40%.

In Florida - Insider Advantage / Poll Position

48% John McCain
44% Barack Obama

In North Carolina - Survey USA

49% John McCain
45% Barack Obama
_________________________

Perhaps just as heartening for McCain, he is moving much closer to Obama in a number of states assumed to be fairly safe for Democrats. Rather than Obama pulling away from McCain leading up to the Conventions, McCain is now within striking distance in these states:

In Minnesota - Rasmussen

49% Barack Obama
45% John McCain

Just three weeks ago, Obama led McCain by 12 points in Minnesota, 49%-37%!

In Washington - Survey USA

51% Barack Obama
44% John McCain

Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by 16 points at 55%-39%.

In Wisconsin - Strategic Vision

47% Barack Obama
42% John McCain

In Pennsylvania - Franklin & Marshall

46% Barack Obama
41% John McCain
___________________________

These numbers bode well for McCain who has weathered the nearly three month storm since Obama clinched the nomination against Hillary the first week of June. Most pundits believed he would open up a huge lead over McCain during the three months leading up to the conventions. So far, he has not. McCain has had far less media coverage, and despite the fawning press in favor of Obama and his huge overseas trip, McCain has managed to stay close. In fact, as these numbers indicate, he is moving up on Obama as the Democratic Convention draws near.

Obama will assuredly get a bounce out of his convention - nominees almost always get a bounce, averaging in the 12 point region.

UPDATE: The Gallup Poll Average Convention Bounce is apparently 6.1 points since 1964:


According to Gallup's analysis of its own polls since 1964, the average post-convention bounce is 6.1 percent. To calculate that figure, Gallup used the last poll before the convention and the first poll afterward. The largest bounce came in 1992, when Bill Clinton went up 16 points in the polls following the convention. The smallest came in 1972 when Sen. George McGovern's poll numbers did not rise at all after the Democratic convention officially nominated him.

But if McCain can be within single digits of Obama nationally after the Democratic Convention and before the GOP Convention, he will be in amazing position headed into the two month sprint to November 4. Keep your eye on the trend.


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Way to go McCain

Way to be in the Swing States while Obama was taking a tour of Europe and vacationing in Hawaii. I wonder why everyone thinks he elitest?
http://www.thenewconservatives.blogspot.com/

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