I took a look at the latest IBD/TIPP poll that Brian just posted showing McCain trailing by only 2 points. As many know, that poll was the most accurate poll regarding the 2004 Presidential race.

The poll shows that there are 8.7% of voters who are listed as "undecided." When I saw those numbers, my eyes lit up. In the past few days I've read about how undecideds were believed likely to favor McCain over Obama. Dick Morris had a great piece out earlier this week titled "Undecideds Should Break for McCain" where he made the case that Obama has now assumed the role of the "incumbent" in this race.

At the beginning of this contest, Obama effectively made the case that the election was a referendum on Bush's performance in office. Painting a vote for McCain as a desire for "four more years of the same failed policies," he made the most of Bush's dismal approval rating. Had he been able to keep the focus on Bush, he would likely have inherited most of the undecided vote.

But as Obama surged into a more or less permanent lead in October, animated by the financial crisis, he has assumed many of the characteristics of an incumbent. Every voter asks himself one question before he or she casts a ballot: Do I want to vote for Obama? His uniqueness, charisma and assertive program have so dominated the dialogue that the election is now a referendum on Obama.

As Obama has oscillated, moving somewhat above or somewhat below 50 percent in all the October polls, his election likely hangs in the balance. If he falls short of 50 percent in these circumstances, a majority of the voters can be said to have rejected him. Likely a disproportionate number of the undecideds will vote for McCain.

If that is the case, McCain has a real chance here to win. If you believe the IBD/TIPP numbers, than Senator McCain would likely need to get more than 62% of the undecided vote to beat Obama. Almost 2 out of every 3.

Is that possible?

In my opinion...You Betcha! ;)