Where the Election Race Stands Now ... Mass Mouthing Off
The 2008 election is definitely acquiring shape. It will be close-run. It will NOT be about change. Electorally, it looks VERY much like the past two elections.
This is a surprise. Given that both candidates, Big Mac and BHO, are insurgents within their respective political parties, one might have expected the 2008 electoral map to look very unlike those of recent Presidential elections. That the 2008 map does NOT look much different, given who is running, sends us a VERY important message: THE PARTIES HAVE THEIR OWN, WELL DEFINED CONSTITUENCIES NO MATTER WHO IS RUNNING.
If this message is a true one, and not just a coincidence, then John McCain really hs no choice but to WORK HIS BASE. Yet to work the Republican base this year is to lose. Thus, the BASE must be worked FOR John Mcain, by someone else, while he himself goes out in Maverick Mode and works the very small remaining, Maverick portion of the entire electorate -- maybe 2 % of the electorate.
WHO, then, is going to work the base for him ? Probably not his VP choice. His VP choice can be only one of two types. Either it will be Mitt Romney, who is skilled in debate and aggressive, and who likely brings MI and also helps in CO and NV, or it will be one of three VP possbilities who have Washington knowledge and can help Big Mac govern. the three Washington-knowledge choices are none of them, very much help ramping up the BASE. Joe Lieberman isn't a Republican; David Petraeus is a military man; Rob Portman is too unknown except in Ohio. As for Mitt Romney, he is distrusted -- rightly -- by much of the base, and that part of the base that DOES like him -- economic conservatives -- don't need working; they are aboard already.
The Base will thus depend on others. Mike Huckabee; Sam Brownback; Kay Baley Hutchinson; Tom Coburn; Eric Cantor; John Kasich; Carly Fiorina; Newt Gingrich; Fred Thompson George Allen; Michael Steele; J.C. Watts. But HOW ? None of these has the clout of a VP Or Presidential nominee. There is, however, one way in which these BASE BUILDERS can make their influence felt strongly. THEY CAN DO IT AS A TEAM. Travelling as a TEAM, they can impress by HAVING NUMBERS and BY BEING DIFFERENT PERSONALITIES ADVOCATING ONE THEME: That John McCain is RIGHT for America.
And there you have it, as I see it. In an election that, despite the insurgent character of the nominees, will be very much a replay of 2000 and 2004 -- the Dems are already trying to make it a referendum on "Bush-McCain" despite the unlikeliness of the connection -- John McCain can win by being even just SLIGHTLY Not George Bush as long as the campaigbn can do TWO things simultaneouly: keep the Base involved, and nudge the Maverick Lovers into our camp just a teensy weensy bit more than usual.
Easy to say, not so easy to do. Watch Colorado. Watch Minnesota. Watch New Hampshire and Oregon. Watch Michigan especially.
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Your right about the base
Your right about the base being cautious with Romney, not because he's a mormon but because he needed to tack to the left to be an effective Gov for Mass. but it seems to me he's on the right side of all the issues now and unlike Ridge or Lieberman has signaled he will stay on the right side of the issues, as far as consevatives go. The fact that he is probably the stongest in economics from the field McCain has to choose from, can deliver a state or two, and is not a sitting senator, are all plusses. Romney would be my solid 2nd choice behind Gov. Sarah Palin who edges out KBH from Texas as well, because I just don't like 2 senators on the ticket, and messing with solid Senate seat in Texas. The theme of this election is the 18 million democrats that voted for Clinton and not Obama. Gov Palin is a solid Republican down the line, her executive experience running a state critical to the U.S. defense and energy needs should be important to all, and in a year where identity politics is running wild, being a youthful female, definitely balances the ticket.
Pawlenty and Portman seem too inside baseball, and the media will "Dan Quayle" them, but if a woman is on the ticket the media would have to be far more careful how it goes about playing that game, at least in Palin's case that would have to have proof of Quaylism,(a potato moment), which hasn't shown up yet. Out of the rest of the group you have listed, I probably like Michael Steele the most just from what I've seen of him on Hannity and Colmes, he seems the most articulate with the least baggage, and he does have executive experience.
You completely missed my
You completely missed my points. To recap them:
1.John McCain will pck a VP who helps him GOVERN. The VP pick is NOT abouit the campaign, it is about GOVERNING.
2.The long list I posted is NOT of VP picks, it is of the TEAM that I propose John McCain assemble to go rally his Base.
3.John McCain cannot easily pick a woman. This would create arival to Hillary for the future. If John McCain is to keep Hillary, or her supporters, neutral or even voting for him, he needs to keep all avenues open for Hillary in 2012. (This is pobably an impoprtant reason why BHO did not pick Kathleen Sebelius.)
4.Sarah Palin is OBSCURITY EPITOMIZED. Tal about un-ready!
1) Your saying a governor
1) Your saying a governor can't help govern? confusing
2) I saw your list and I know they weren't there to be VP choices but many of tham have been rumoured to be on the short list of possible choices, so why can't people comment on them?
3) Not being able to pick another woman only applies to Obama, the field is wide open to McCain, the average voter is not going to go to the depth of strategizing that your talking about for 2012.
4) Ok so Sarah Palin is considered obscure by your standards, but she's only behind Huckaby and Romney on this sites polling and has a speaking gig at the convention, not bad for obscurity epitomized
The inner strategy re
The inner strategy re picking a woman VP applies only to Hillary and her supporters: but they are VITAL to Big Mac's winning votes not ordinarily given to a Republican prsidetial candidate.
You can certainly advocate for the VP potential of people on my CAMPAIGN TEAM list, but not within the context of my commentary.
That Sarah Palin draws support at this blog page is to be expected. Almost all of those who blog here are committed right-roots. I am NOT such. I am a John McCin supporter first, Repblican second -- a pragmatist who expects the Republican party to be USEFUL, not ideologically correct -- look how much grief the ideological folks have given John McCain over the years ! All because he seeks pragmatic solutions that will WORK for ordinary people (including reasonable Demcrats) not ideologues. And can I forget the TOTALLY UN-American nativist flap thrown his way over immigration reform? Because of that alone, I want no part, ever again, of the right-roots. NO sir. No.
I think the VP pick is more about campaigning in this election.
Mass-mouth I think the VP will be more about trying to pick up votes in this election. I like Palin too although there are plenty of good selections. I agree with JD when he says Romney isn't a good choice. I'm against Romney or Huckabee being VP. If you want to know more go to my site. I have several VP profiles up there.
http://thenewconservatives.blogspot.com/
I of course agree with you,
I of course agree with you, though probably not for the same reasons that you espouse. Which is totally OK.